Signals and scoreboard
A signal is a public model output. We log it once, with the price at that moment. Then we record the price 1 h, 4 h, and 24 h later. Nothing is edited after the fact.
Hit rate by signal kind
Stale 16d31 signals are graded of 32 logged. The scoreboard covers all of them. The log below shows the last 300. A signal without a price at its time is logged and cannot be graded.
| Kind | Signals | 1h hit rate | 4h hit rate | 24h hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin depeg | 9 of 10 logged | not enough graded flags yet n=9 | not enough graded flags yet n=9 | not enough graded flags yet n=6 |
| Funding extreme | 18 of 18 logged | not enough graded flags yet n=18 | not enough graded flags yet n=18 | not enough graded flags yet n=13 |
| High-impact news | 4 of 4 logged | not enough graded flags yet n=4 | not enough graded flags yet n=4 | not enough graded flags yet n=4 |
A hit means the price moved the way the signal said. Pure chance gives a hit rate near 50 percent, so a rate is worth something only when its whole interval lies above 50 percent. A rate needs at least 30 graded flags. Below that the page says so. The move is the average absolute change since the signal. After "vs" is the typical move for this asset in a random window of the same length: if the move after a signal is not larger, the signal added nothing.
Average move by JEV impact
| Impact | Signals | 1h move | 4h move | 24h move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market moving | 4 | 0.11% n=4 | 1.28% n=4 | 3.19% n=4 |
If JEV ranks impact well, market moving stories should move the price more than notable ones, and more than the typical move for the asset. This table shows whether they do.
Does the impact rating predict how far the price moves?
| Impact | Stories | +5 min | +15 min | +60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market moving | 6 | 0.09% median 0.09% n=6 | 0.11% median 0.13% n=6 | 0.13% median 0.13% n=6 |
| Notable | 213 | 0.10% median 0.07% n=213 | 0.17% median 0.10% n=213 | 0.40% median 0.26% n=213 |
| Routine | 76 | 0.09% median 0.06% n=76 | 0.19% median 0.12% n=76 | 0.56% median 0.43% n=76 |
| Promo | 38 | 0.09% median 0.07% n=38 | 0.20% median 0.15% n=38 | 0.37% median 0.33% n=38 |
Not enough data yet to compare market moving stories with routine stories. We need more stories in each class. So far: market moving 6, routine 76.
Each cell is the average absolute price move of the asset that the story names. The random window column is the typical 60 minute move of the same assets at any time. If a market moving story is not followed by a larger move than a random window, the rating added nothing. The rows show how far the price of the story coin moved after the first publication of the story, and how far the same coins move at any time (the baseline). They do not show why the price moved. Stories on the same coin at the same time share one price path, so the p value is too optimistic. Many stories also follow a move that has already happened. A row with a small n is a hint and not a result.
Signal log
| Time | Kind | Asset | Model view | Signal | 1h | 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin depeg | apxUSD | None | apxUSD trades at $0.9876 | +0.00% | -0.14% | - | |
| Funding extreme | GRAM | None | GRAM perpetual funding is -83% a year | -0.07% | -0.40% | - | |
| Funding extreme | XMR | None | XMR perpetual funding is +129% a year | +0.02% | +0.25% | - | |
| Stablecoin depeg | FRAX | None | Frax trades at $0.9889 | +0.30% | +0.31% | - | |
| Funding extreme | XMR | None | XMR perpetual funding is +80% a year | -0.46% | -0.57% | - | |
| Funding extreme | TRX | None | TRX perpetual funding is -85% a year | +0.09% | +0.65% | - | |
| Stablecoin depeg | satUSD | None | River Stablecoin trades at $0.9738 | +0.00% | +1.82% | - | |
| Funding extreme | XRP | None | XRP perpetual funding is +81% a year | -0.03% | -0.52% | - | |
| Funding extreme | XMR | None | XMR perpetual funding is +87% a year | -0.36% | -0.48% | -0.09% | |
| Funding extreme | TRX | None | TRX perpetual funding is -89% a year | -0.01% | +0.14% | +0.32% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | BUSD | None | Binance Peg BUSD trades at $0.9894 | +1.14% | +1.02% | +1.44% | |
| Funding extreme | TRX | None | TRX perpetual funding is -85% a year | +0.06% | +0.27% | +0.08% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | apxUSD | None | apxUSD trades at $0.9897 | +0.00% | -0.14% | +0.35% | |
| Funding extreme | GRAM | None | GRAM perpetual funding is +125% a year | -0.07% | +2.10% | -1.74% | |
| Funding extreme | HYPE | None | HYPE perpetual funding is -110% a year | -0.40% | +0.22% | +3.15% | |
| Funding extreme | TRX | None | TRX perpetual funding is -100% a year | +0.10% | +0.41% | +0.65% | |
| Funding extreme | TRX | None | TRX perpetual funding is -81% a year | +0.01% | +0.27% | +0.83% | |
| Funding extreme | PUMP | None | PUMP perpetual funding is +81% a year | -0.74% | -0.37% | -0.12% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | satUSD | None | River Stablecoin trades at $0.9840 | +0.00% | -0.01% | +1.07% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | apxUSD | None | apxUSD trades at $0.9881 | +0.00% | +0.12% | +0.16% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | satUSD | None | River Stablecoin trades at $0.9860 | +0.00% | -0.01% | -0.19% | |
| Funding extreme | XMR | None | XMR perpetual funding is +84% a year | -0.15% | +0.45% | +2.57% | |
| High-impact news | NEAR | Up | Bitwise's NEAR ETF Comes With a 2030 Price Target. The Max Case Is Eye-Watering flagged 29 minutes after the first outlet published |
-0.22% | +2.82% | +10.29% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | apxUSD | None | apxUSD trades at $0.9870 | +0.00% | +0.44% | +0.11% | |
| High-impact news | BTC | Down | Bitget reopens withdrawals after major security breach drains roughly $388 million flagged 2 minutes after the first outlet published |
-0.15% | -0.19% | +0.04% | |
| High-impact news | BTC | Down | Bitget records $463M in net outflows after hack steals up to $388M from exchange flagged 1 minute after the first outlet published |
+0.03% | -1.58% | +1.44% | |
| Funding extreme | PUMP | None | PUMP perpetual funding is +154% a year | +1.59% | +2.44% | +2.14% | |
| Funding extreme | NEAR | None | NEAR perpetual funding is +93% a year | -1.27% | +1.06% | +7.79% | |
| Funding extreme | PUMP | None | PUMP perpetual funding is +80% a year | +3.83% | +3.17% | +3.16% | |
| Funding extreme | GRAM | None | GRAM perpetual funding is +100% a year | -1.04% | -2.57% | -5.74% | |
| High-impact news | BTC | Up | Bitcoin ETF inflows of $2.4B tighten supply as exchanges lose 35,800 BTC in a single week | +0.05% | +0.56% | -0.97% | |
| Stablecoin depeg | - | None | apxUSD trades at $0.9897 | - | - | - |
Check mark: the price moved the way the model view said. Cross: it moved the other way. Pending: the horizon is not over. A dash: no price was recorded at the due time, so the cell stays empty instead of a guess.